An Australian risk prediction model for determining early mortality following aortic valve replacement

Field Value
Model ID11-009-01
Model NameAus-Aortic Valve Replacement (AVR) Score
Pubmed ID21376618
First AuthorAriyaratne
JournalEuropean Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery
Year2011
TitleAn Australian risk prediction model for determining early mortality following aortic valve replacement
Primary Index ConditionCardiac Surgery
Secondary Index ConditionValve
OutcomeMortality
Model Sample Size3544
Cohort Sample Size3544
Number of Events147
Follow-Up DurationShort (<3 months)
AUROC0.78
Calibration Reported1
CovariatesCerebrovascular disease: coma; Cerebrovascular disease: CVA; Cerebrovascular disease: RIND/TIA; EF grade: mild EF (46-60%); EF grade: moderate EF (30-45%); EF grade: severe EF (<30%); NYHA class III; NYHA class IV; Previous CABG; Previous valve surgery; Previous other cardiac surgery; Active infective endocarditis; Left main disease; Renal dysfunction (estimated GFR): mild (60-89); Renal dysfunction (estimated GFR): moderate (30-59); Renal dysfunction (estimated GFR): severe (15-29); Renal dysfunction (estimated GFR): end-stage kidney disease (<15); Age group 60-69 years; Age group 70-79 years; Age group 80+ years; Constant
Mesh TermsTo be updated
Number of Validations3

External Validations

Yes
3
0.684
1st Author Year Sample Size AUC Calibration Relatedness
Wang 2015 620 0.618 No Related
Wang 2015 620 0.684 Yes Related
Ariyaratne 2011 1258 0.73 Yes Closely Related