To better understand the extent of clinical prediction model (CPM) development and to help researchers and clinicians, we have created the Tufts PACE CPM Registry, a field synopsis of CPMs that predict clinical outcomes for patients with and at risk for CVD.
For the Registry, a CPM is defined as a model that provides a method to calculate or categorize an individual patient’s absolute risk for a binary outcome. We include articles that describe newly-developed CPMs that predict the risk of developing an outcome (prognostic models) or the probability of a specific diagnosis (diagnostic models). We include articles describing CPMs for patients at risk of developing incident CVD and also CPMs for patients with known CVD that predict the likelihood of developing a binary outcome (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, death, or a composite endpoint).
The database currently contains CPMs published through March 2015. There are ongoing efforts to update the systematic review for the Registry.
Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center
Medical care is delivered one-patient-at-a-time. But the evidence for practicing is derived by aggregating many patients—typically thousands or tens of thousands of patients–into groups. This group-derived evidence would be highly informative for medical practice if all patients were identical. The dissimilarity of individual patients, however, potentially undermines clinical research as a scientific basis for the practice of medicine.
The Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center seeks to better understand and address the limitations of using group-derived evidence as the basis for decision making in individual patients. Our approach is based on the close integration of clinical and statistical reasoning. Our goal is to provide clinicians and patients with evidence better tailored to their particular circumstances; we have expertise in clinical medicine, risk modeling, individual patient meta-analysis, and observational comparative effectiveness studies.